TOPIC: The explosion of export production in China has defined that country's rapid economic growth. It has also led to some serious side-effects, such as intense environmental degradation, dramatically increasing pressure on the world's supply of fossil fuels, enormous trade imbalances with the West, etc. What do you consider to be the most pressing global challenge posed by China's rapid rise, and what leverage do you feel other nations of the world could/should exercise (or not) to reduce the impact of this particular challenge?
Being of Chinese descent has never been such a big deal as is the case in the 21st century. The economy of China was booming at double digit growth rates and constantly running budget surpluses of billions of dollars. "Europe, that speck on the horizon, is (being) ignored: an EU summit was cancelled and France is still blacklisted because Nicolas Sarkozy dared to meet the Dalai Lama. (Economist How)" In fact, anti-Chinese sentiments were never as strong as in February 2009 when the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao had a shoe thrown at him in Cambridge University, always an indicator that the "recipient" is the representative of a formidable and threatening force. In all sense, the millions of Chinese living outside China, significant in their numbers as shown by the Chinatowns across the world, feel a surge of pride when China does well, for it is where they draw their roots from.
The most significant amount of limelight has been shone upon China's economic performance. 300 million people have been snagged from the jaws of poverty and raised into the working middle class by the Communist Party led government with a capitalistic free market economy (Koppel). From 2003 to 2007, real GDP growth was 11 percent; real domestic demand growth was 9.9 percent; the inflation monster was chained down to a mere 2.6 percent and China inched its way up slowly from eleventh largest economy in 1980 when it first opened up its doors to foreign trade to become the third largest economy in 2007 (Factsheet). The world has been amazed by its steady growth but as always, negative attention is never too far away from the glitz and glamour of a success story. Much has been said about China's handling of human rights issues, its demand on the world's resources and the role it plays in the global race towards a dirtier tomorrow. However, the most pressing complication that China poses to the world is it's unsettling of the United States of America from its crown throne at number one in economy and in geo-politics.
After winning World War Two, America was in great economic standing relative to the rest of the world. Europe was in debt with America and had to rebuild itself from the war that had been fought on its land. Meanwhile, America had made a handsome sum of money from selling war machines and products to Europe, while pumping their economy with the US dollar in exchange for gold (Maloney). In fact, the world was ready for America to lead. America's economy would boom and lead it to become a superpower in the world, not only because it had effectively won the war for the "good" side, but also because America would extend its influence over the world with humanitarian aid, foreign aid, support of the United Nations and International Monetary Fund (IMF), funding of programs it deemed democratic or governments that were pro-American. Every country had a price to it and America would see to it that capitalism would work its magic in America's favor. America not only pumped money into economies, it also pushed hard for free trade and capitalism with the World Trade Organization pushing for free trade and free market reforms globally. The world economy would move on to integrate with America's such that should America sneeze, the whole world would catch a cold. The future was definitely bright. That was until China began to cause ripples big enough to consider waves in America's oversight of its global economy stronghold.
Back in 1979, China with Deng Xiaoping as its leader, pledged to reform and open its economy. This essentially reduced the role of communist ideology in economic policy and opened up the doors to a nation with the world's largest population. Added with the factor of poverty, Chinese worker wages were significantly lower than that of Western workers. In fact, there were no unions and business laws were still undeveloped, if they existed. Corporations the world over flooded China with capital to start up manufacturing lines. The logic of the day was that with less money, more goods could be produced at a lower price. There was no question as to whether a company should set up its factory in China; it was only a matter of when that was to be accomplished. The trade agreements signed by the governments of America and China, which included the US-China Labor Rights Agreement and the US – China Technology Program; the ushering of China to join and rise to the high ranks of the World Trade Organization and the trade policy initiatives, such as the US – China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT), were all done with the foresight of greater productivity and hence greater tax revenues by American corporations, cheaper products for American consumers and a strong American presence in the upcoming Chinese market (Country). However, the unintended consequences of this great push for assumingly free trade with China would be the loss of American jobs and the dependence on Chinese manufactured products. As companies found the prices of their products being brought down more and more by their competitors who had off-shored the manufacturing tasks to China, they had to choose between laying off American workers while setting up factories in China or declare bankruptcy. A significant player in the field of the race to the bottom for prices would be Wal-Mart, which is one of the first companies to ship the manufacturing jobs to China back when China opened its doors n 1979 (Smith). They would go on to become America's largest corporation, reporting a revenue of $378.8 billion for 2008 (Fortune), and stand tall and proud at the forefront of the corporation of corporations who have stood to gain the most from off-shoring. However, the multi-billion dollar question would be, is what's good for the corporate America good for main street? In PBS Frontline's Is Wal-Mart Good for America, correspondent Hedrick Smith interviewed a lady who had recently lost her job to off-shoring and asked her whether she shopped at Wal-Mart. She answered yes as-a-matter-of-factly, for shopping there saved her money. In this segment lies the great paradox of Chinese manufactured goods and America's reliance on these cheap products, even if the situation were not beneficial to America fiscally.
China has endured much flak for its trade deficit with the West, most notably with America. For 2008, America had a $266.3 billion trade deficit with China (Trade). This situation can be summed up by taking a look around the average American home environment, from sweaters to basketballs and batteries to bikes, the majority of manufactured goods that do not require high end technology bear the "Made in China" stamp. In The People's Republic of Capitalism, Ted Koppel interviews a lady who works at one of the ports in China, and the lady mentions that what is shipped to America is manufactured end products, while China imports raw materials and even waste products from America, hence leaving a déjà vu feeling of the colonization period trade model. Once again, the irony is that America is on the supplying end of raw materials which is usually associated with the colonized territories. It is even more unsettling as we look at Japan, with which America has the second largest trade deficit at a distant $72.7 billion in comparison with China's $266.3 billion in trade deficit (Top). What the numbers tell us is that should this pattern continue, America will be buying more goods from China than it sells at this total price. And in simple economic terms, this is not at all a sustainable model. One, because Americans are paying for these goods with United States (US) dollars which flow into the Chinese economy. Two, because it creates a situation where Americans consume and essentially need more Chinese manufactured goods than the Chinese need American made goods. That is exactly like the situation in which Hedrick Smith of PBS Frontline interviewed the lady who lost her job to the Chinese low wage workers; she saw no harm and even found it justifiable to buy Chinese goods.
It is indeed true that American corporations are the main players to set up shop in China to produce and export back to America. However, these corporations are very much at the mercy of the Chinese government. The Economist reported that on August 2008, the Chinese government imposed what was informally referred to as its "economic constitution", a broad anti-monopoly law for a country rife with state-imposed monopolies. On March 18th 2009, this law came into effect with the rejection of the largest outright acquisition by a foreign firm, a $2.4 billion offer by Coca-Cola for China Huiyuan, China's largest juice company (Hard). Essentially, this is one of the many leverages that the one-party Chinese government formed by the Communist Party has over American corporations. The market is free indeed, but within the boundaries of government control. Take for example the fact that China carved up a $586 billion stimulus package with much less public sentiment or media coverage than America and the fact that much of China's energy, steel and banking sector is state owned and you get the picture of a somewhat monitored economy. Hence, it would not be too radical to argue that should the Chinese government have the will to limit and curtail the actions and plans of foreign corporations, it has the means to go on offense and the corporations could barely do anything. Too much capital has been dumped into the Chinese economy and the infrastructure; networking, wages and market also yield too high a stake to upset. Now should the American government decide to lean towards protectionism and set up high tariffs and barriers, the low prices would instantly vaporize and the American public would not be too happy with that decision. Besides, if it does become hard enough to do business in the US, corporations will not hesitate to search for a new market, with the potential of the upcoming Chinese middle class being very real. As the majority of business interests, markets and manufacturing are in foreign nations, "American" corporations such as McDonalds, Ford and Nike have shown that they are willing to label themselves as multi-national companies, and not American companies. What that translates into is a decrease in American tax revenue as business interests decline and a very real threat of multi-million job losses, all bleeding the American economy.
Now before we move into the complicated task of further evaluating how the Chinese leverage over the American economy would pose a great global challenge, there is an ultimate leverage that needs to be investigated. How does the government keep the economy growing, even in times of recession? How does the government make sure that the credit market does not squeeze up? How does the government fund the recent $700 billion and previous smaller stimulus packages? In order to keep the economy growing, even in times of recessions, the American government has to print more US currency (Maloney). And in order to do the magnificent mathematics, or perhaps magic, of balancing the account books for creating money out of thin air, the government has to sell Treasury Securities. Interestingly enough, China started buying more Securities in June 2008 and overtook Japan as the top holder of American Treasury Securities in September 2008, when the US government started the bailout and containment frenzy (Major). It's bad enough that China has leverage over the American corporations who have set up shop in China, but it's even scarier to imagine that China is also holding America's house of cards, which economists call the financial system, together. Much as Europe was indebted to America post-World War Two, America is greatly indebted to China as of September 2008.
In retrospect, holler and protest as some parties may, the America's trade deficit is here to stay. In all sense, Tim Geithner, America's Treasury Secretary made a point of accusing China of manipulating its currency exchange rate with respect to the dollar, hence making Chinese exports cheaper. Lo and behold, China would give no heed to these ramblings, for it very well knew its hand of cards. Having said that, how does China's leverage over America's economy affect the world? In June 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two American mortgage giants who held or guaranteed about half of the nation's mortgage loans started to teeter. On September 7, 2008, US federal authorities put them both under federal control. A week later, however, the embattled Lehman Brothers investment bank would be allowed to fail without any federal assistance. Subsequently, two huge American banks, Merrill Lynch and Bank of America would be merged. 48 hours later, an $85 billion stimulus package was hastily cobbled together to prop up the distressed American insurance giant, AIG. This was approximately when China started buying the most amounts of Treasury Securities, as America was borrowing and printing money against its future. China knew that failure for America would mean failure for China, and that was clearly not an option. This was also when the world economy started to slow down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the largest drop in the history of the Index; the government of Iceland subsequently had to ask for help from the IMF after a series of bank failures; the Reserve Bank of Australia injected nearly $1.5 billion into the banking system, nearly three times as much as the market's estimated requirement; in Taiwan, the central bank on September 16 2008 said it would cut its required reserve ratios for the first time in eight years; the European Central Bank injected $99.8 billion in a one-day money-market auction and many more cash injections would follow; altogether, central banks throughout the world added more than $200 billion from the September 10 to September 17 (Global). The world economy was in chaos and bailout was the vocabulary of the day. All that had triggered it was the collapse of a few American banks and the global financial system felt the aftershocks significantly. Indeed, our financial systems and economy are so integrated that no one country can isolate itself and expect to prosper. With America at the helm of the economic pyramidal network, China's staggering growth, at a targeted 8% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in 2009 despite the recession, has already started to threaten America's stronghold on the economic throne. It is not likely that China will match America's GDP in the near future, as America is at a far-away $13.8 trillion from China's $3.4 trillion (CNN.com China). However, over the period of a decade or two, China could become a serious contender. In the meantime, China has raised enough headaches and garnered substantial negative media focus for its previous double digit growth rate, all that while it is only at a distant third place. What this implies is that America feels the pressure of an increasingly stronger China, and the world is watching closely too. The very notion that America could be number two to any other nation was one that was buried with the self-destruction of the Soviet Union. No other world power came close to threatening America after them, until China came along. And the most interesting part is that because China has been building up the momentum for three decades, it does not look like it is about to take a back seat on growth currently.
Historically, the sword has determined the order of the world. "But there has never been a nation in the history of the world that saw its economy decline and maintained its military superiority (,)" Senator Barack Obama declared to the world in his second presidential debate with Senator John McCain. Indeed, the strength of a nation's economy determines how strong its influence will be in the world. That's why America, with its biggest economy, has been playing the role of global police all along. However, in this age and time, military strength does not play the only role in a nation's foreign policy, as multilateral initiatives, non-governmental organizations, strong sentiments of global policy and the push for a common political system is every bit as influential, if not more. Hence, as China inches closer towards America's economic standards, its geo-political clout in its region and globally tends to increase proportionately.
Come the G20 summit in April 2009, the focus will once again be on China and America. The head of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick and its chief economist, Justin Yifu Lin wrote in an article in The
Washington Post, "For the world's economy to recover, these two economic powerhouses must cooperate and become the engine for the Group of 20. Without a strong G-2, the G-20 will disappoint." Indeed, in the face of the current financial meltdown, China is called upon to shoulder greater responsibility to prop up the world economy. In all sense, China stole the limelight at the last G20 summit by announcing a $565 billion stimulus package just before it. Should China come up with another stimulus package, it would delight everyone (Time). One, because China is known to save roughly 50% of its GDP, with household savings accounting for 20 percent of the GDP (Recovery). Hence, China has a deep reservoir of cash to pull out from. Two, as China spend more money, it would potentially set the pace of the world economy again, allowing it to start up once again. Now the paradox here is that America too is spending a lot of money, but it's spending money on a budget deficit of over $1 trillion; while China spends from its cash reservoir. The global perception would then be that as China has more "real" cash to spend, it should be in a better position to spend more to pull everyone out of the current mess. And that, once again, is cash being used as a very important leverage, for whoever has the money shall call the shots. In other words, in the face of current issues, China could potentially take over the global leadership, with more nations paying heed to its political rhetoric.
However, history serves its purpose by pointing at Mr. Deng Xiaoping's advice on avoiding taking the lead (Time). In early February, Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, stressed that China's development was no threat to anyone. It would be a peaceful and co-operative great power (Economist How). So while China is indeed basking in the glory of its new economic growth that propelled it towards being a significant global power, it seems that China is quite reluctant at making the big decisions and taking the lead for the world. Hence, there is nothing to worry about China with regards to geo-politics, or is there? The Chinese are a versatile lot, they are keen to observe and slow to act. However, when they take action, it will be with the conviction of sound observations and a well-thought argument. Take for example the North Korean dictatorship, or the Iran nuclear ambitions or even the genocide in Darfur, Sudan. The United Nations Security Council has, under the steering of America, been trying to slap tighter sanctions and embargos with teeth on these regimes, but China has craftily used its veto power in each case."As an authoritarian regime that reformed, they understand what Kim Jong-Il, North Korea's dictator, is most concerned with—survival," Adam Segal, a Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow for China studies says. China's support runs back to the Korean war, when it lent financial and troop support to the North Koreans. Economically, China supplies them with food, fuel and arms. Politically, China does not want to deal with the uncontrolled influx of refugees should the regime fail. Besides, North Korea serves as a buffer zone with South Korea, home to 29,000 US troops. (Bajoria) As for Iran, even with their volatile combination of exportable Islamist political view and nuclear ambitions, China is reluctant to bit the bullet and slap sanctions on it. The main reason behind it is that Iran supplies China with approximately 13 percent of its oil. Besides, China is working towards asserting its presence and goodwill in the Middle East, hence the dragging of its feet (Segal). Sudan, too exports 64% of its oil to China, in accordance with China's growing demand for energy (Hanson). All three examples point toward China understanding the situation thoroughly and well-thought out strategies, and they are clearly in contradiction with the West's views. In the past, China has chosen to abstain or take a secondary seat in issues that are not directly affecting it. However, as its confidence and self-assertiveness grows, China is more willing to use international organizations like the United Nations to achieve its goals (Segal). When North Korea tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006, China had a change of course and agreed to UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which imposed sanctions on Pyongyang, North Korea. However, it is still the staunchest supporter of the regime and its views on the other two regimes remain unchanged. So, the question is, when the West, specifically America, disagrees with China on international issues with direct dire consequences like genocide and nuclear weapons, who will have the final say on policies?
As free as the Chinese market and as fast-growing as its economy is, subsequently acting as a counter-balance to Western economic progress pride bordering on in-your-face arrogance, China is a communist country. It is special in the sense that it's the first communist country to successfully implement a capitalist free market economy. Economic growth sits at top priority and everything else after that can, and do, take a backseat. In all fairness, China has made some progress in human rights as of today, as compared to the heydays of the Tiananmen Square Massacre. However, by international standards, they are nowhere near stellar. Its recent crackdown on the pro-Tibetan protests was a cause for concern. In a report published in March 24, Amnesty International reports that China carried out 1718 executions in 2008, a grand total of 72% of the world's execution (Executing). Whether these people were given a fair trial and how many more executions go unreported are unknown. Press freedom and freedom of speech are also issues that raise red flags. Most of the press is state-owned and reports news as the government sees fit. The internet, on the other hand, has posed the greatest catalyst for change in this area as China has the world's largest internet population at 298 million (China Internet). Even though the Chinese government sets up filters and censorship firewalls, there has been a surge in Chinese blogs and alternative media which are not affiliated with the government. Come touchy anniversaries, such as the Tiananmen massacre, and topics regarding banned organizations, for example the Fa Lun Gong, a religious body turned anti-government political movement that was declared illegal, the Chinese government does not waiver one bit in its stance of filtering the internet for relevant contents, for it regards the dissemination of information as "privileges" and cites social hegemony as a very important factor in governance. On another note, China is not a keen supporter of going green, as it subscribes to the old school of thoughts that going green takes more effort and money. In fact, the pollution scene is so dire that it is said that in major cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai, there are days when you cannot see the sun directly as the sky is constantly covered by smog and haze. For the Beijing Olympics 2008, China had to limit cars with license plates ending with even and odd numbers to being driven on alternate days as the air quality raised huge concerns among the sporting community about the suitability of the competition venue.
These are only the most pressing issues, and the list goes on and on. What raises concern here though is that as China raises among the ranks of global powers due to its economic prowess, it will yield a substantial influence over the less developed and developing nations. While the West, more pointedly America, pushes for human rights, liberty and green energy, China will play the role of the bad boy among the elite nations. It will play the devil's advocate that has not conformed to too many of the West's standards, yet has trumped almost all Western and Westernized nations in the most important index of all, economy. The message, be it explicit or implicit, will be an anti-Western-values message, one of state rights at the cost of personal liberty, propaganda above free flow of information and the suppression of basic human dignity. While China may argue that it does not promote communism, at least not yet, it does not oppose authoritarianism or dictatorships either. While China may proclaim that it will be a leader that respects national sovereignty, that probably implies that if the nation at stake has a terrible track record of human rights, China will take a step back and act as a nonchalant observer. In all sense, we are not even sure if China will take an active leadership role which requires it to participate in all issues, and not only issues that cut into its bread and butter directly. For if China acts indifferent to the poverty and diseases of the people in Africa while staunchly opposing United Nations sanctions on Sudan, its oil supplier, it will be leadership of the worst kind. Although America is not the perfect role model in global leadership, especially in its hypocrisy of supporting some dictators while overthrowing others in the name of democracy and liberty, or its failure to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, America is the lesser of two evils. At the very least, it takes up an active leadership role and tries its best to contain evil. Edmund Burke says it well, "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."
Having said all that, what are my suggestions for nations? I believe that as bad as China may seem on paper, it should be given a fair shot at success. After all, if we use all kind of unorthodox ways to block China's rise, how much different are our views regarding respect, humility, liberty and justice as opposed to the Chinese government's? The bottom line, I believe, is that China did not get to where it is today by self-inflation and lying to oneself. China's leaders must have taken a long hard look at themselves in the mirror and tried to figure out what exactly had gone wrong with Chairman Mao Ze Dong's economic policy. That's when they looked poverty in the eye and decided that capitalism was the only way to slay the beast, hence the open door policy in 1979. Before blame should be mounted on others, a nation will have to scrutinize itself and ask the question, "What's wrong with our economy?" In fact, often times it is so easy to overlook the fact that, above all, China is getting all sorts of media attention because its economy works! So, it is time that we take a long and hard look at ourselves, and our economy specifically, especially in the aftermath of the American financial system failure. In America's case, it will have to start addressing its trade deficit, budget deficit and the free printing of currency which leads to inflation and devaluation of the US dollar. Deficits are acceptable over the short term, but if the deficits are constantly run for a longer period of time and remain unaddressed, they will be unsustainable. It is about tightening our belts, from the individual to the federal level. If the check book doesn't balance, one may be homeless some day; if a company runs losses too often, it's going to go bankrupt; if a country runs deficits long enough, it won't be long before it runs itself too far into the ground to be rescued. Borrowing generously against the future is, without a doubt, gambling on the next generation's fortunes and should only be done sparingly, if at all. Fiscal discipline is the word of the day. More accountability and transparency must be seen at the marketplace and rules and regulations must exist, even in a free market environment. Definitely, taking a little cue from our Chinese counterparts with regards to saving and frugality will go a long way. The greatness of a nation is , first and foremost, measured by its economy, so if the economic problems and woes are not addressed and dealt with, a decline in power and influence is almost certain.
In the age of globalization, America stands to lose too much if it were to pull away from free trade and freer markets. Yes, the previous free trade agreements with China could have been flawed, but that is not a legitimate reason to pull back from what has created wealth beyond measure in the entire history of mankind. Never before have there been so many millionaires, billionaires and even trillionaires. Yet again, never before has the gap between the poor and the rich been so huge. What that tells us if that as corporations are made rich by shipping jobs to China with cheap labor, we have to build a social net to cushion the fall of the workers who will lose their jobs over the years. It is inevitable, but it is solvable. Re-educating the jobless to break into new industries which require different or higher technical skills will be one way to go. Encouraging more entrepreneurship will create more jobs. Putting people back into newer and more exciting would be the ultimate goal of this social network. For countries that have yet to sign any significant free trade agreements, it would be wise to learn from the mistakes of others and not repeat them. Building a social net to catch those who fall off the greater locomotive of progress and striving hard to relocate them should be a priority s well. While survival of the fittest is prevalent in free markets, protection of the poor and needy is the number one priority for any government. No matter how free a market is set up to be, there must be oversight, rules and a social cushion.
As stock markets become volatile, corporations become nationalized and cash flow is tight, the threat of protectionism sounds like a good idea. After all, if we don't take care of ourselves, who will take care of us? Slapping tariffs and barriers on foreign goods might earn a nation higher import tax revenues, but that will hurt it even more over the long run. One, the domino effect will be felt throughout the world, whereby everyone plays the game of slapping quotas and duties on products, which will in turn make things more expensive and consumers less likely to buy them. If cash is not flowing into the economy because people are not spending, demand is low and supply is high, and prices of products go up due to significant taxes, it is only a matter of time before inflation goes up and the recession turns worse. Every nation's economy today is integrated into the greater network of the global economy today. Hurting thy neighbor is equivalent to hurting thyself. That is why protectionism cannot stand, even against the formidable China which built its economy on exports. Should the Congress of America slap high taxes on Chinese goods, prices will go up and customers will not be pleased with the price hike. Tax revenues will be slightly higher, but China will be likely to slap its own tariffs on American made products, the only difference being that the tariffs will be higher. China will also pinch its federal loans and purchases of Treasury Securities, which would further tighten up credit markets and lock both countries into a longer global recession. Clearly, protectionism has not worked, does not work, and will not work. So on policy making sessions, protectionism should be striked off the list of probable actions and protection in the form of social cushioning should be added in instead.
"The rise of China over the past three decades have been astonishing. But it has lacked the one feature it needed fully to satisfy the ultranationalist fringe : an accompanying decline of the West. Now capitalism is in a funk in its heartlands. … Although in public, China's leaders eschew triumphalism, there is a sense in Beijing that the reassertion of the Middle Kingdom's global ascendancy is at hand. (Economist How)" There is nowhere China is going but up, up and away. It has been a stable growth for three decades, riding on the shoulders of the growing middle class and supported by the pride of a people with 5000 years worth of history and tradition. And much as Americans love to win, the Chinese do not like to lose, especially fueled by the bitter history of foreign intrusion in China by the West and Japan. The Chinese government will see to it that under its oversight, the Chinese people will be propelled to newer and greater heights; and the best way to handle an incoming wave is to ride it, not go against it.
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3 comments:
woah. did you write ALL THAT? *salute.. haha are u majoring in politics or something?? @.@
lol. did you read finish bo!?
or u see length then stop reading d?! : P
At the rate you're writing, you can get a book published by next year. xD
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